Definition
Variance describes how much your actual results fluctuate around your expected value due to randomness.
Variance
How much short-term results swing around your expectation.
Key points
- Higher variance means larger up/downswings despite correct play.
- Bluff-heavy lines often increase variance.
- Sample size is required to estimate true winrate.
Common misconceptions
Myth
Variance means luck is all that matters.
Reality
Over enough hands, EV dominates; variance is the path.
Myth
Variance can be eliminated.
Reality
It can be reduced but never removed.