Equity (poker)

Your share of the pot in expectation, given ranges and future runouts.

Definition

Equity is the percentage of the pot you expect to win on average if the hand runs to showdown from this point, given the ranges and unknown cards.

Key points

  • Equity is an average over all possible runouts and opponent hands (ranges).
  • Equity alone is not EV: you also need pot odds, bet sizes, and future action.
  • Sampling (Monte Carlo) estimates equity; more samples reduce noise.

Common misconceptions

Myth

Equity is the chance I win this hand.

Reality

It’s your average share of the pot, including ties.

Myth

If I have 55% equity, I should always continue.

Reality

You still need to compare to the price you’re being offered.

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